Friday, June 26, 2009

Pre-Opening Briefing: Reversing Strength

After a bounce on the release of Personal Income data, the U.S. dollar has weakened, 10-year Treasury rates have fallen, and stock index futures saw concerted selling, taking us below the day's VWAP (bottom chart; red line). As the Market Delta chart indicates, we've seen significant volume transacted at the bid vs. offer; I'll be looking to see if that continues into the morning trade, testing yesterday afternoon's lows. We have Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM CT, and it's a nice warm Friday in the summer; things could slow down and turn rangebound as the day moves on. I'll be tracking relative volume and passing along observations via tweets.

10:09 AM CT - I've added the top chart to show how we've been trading more volume at the market bid vs offer most of the morning in the ES contract despite relative strength in the NASDAQ and Russell indexes and the NYSE TICK. That has kept selling pressure on the S&P 500, with a declining VWAP and trade below VWAP. I note that we're trading right at yesterday's pivot level, with much of today's trade in the fat part of Thursday's value area.