Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Midday Briefing: Awaiting the Fed Announcement

We see from the Market Delta chart (middle) how selling has begun entering the ES market after a strong morning, with the dollar moving higher versus the euro. A longer-term look (bottom chart) shows that the support from 6/17 and 6/18 is now serving as near-term resistance. I'll be watching that level closely going into the Fed announcement. Failure to sustain prices above that level would set up range bound trade between today's highs and the last two days' lows.

2:05 PM CT - I added the top chart of ES to show how strength in rates and the dollar led to steady volume at bid to exceed volume transacted at the offer price (bottom histogram) and a break of the day's VWAP (red line). Selling rallies that fail to take us above VWAP has been a worthwhile strategy so far, as we're accepting value lower relative to the morning trade.