Monday, September 21, 2009

Tracking a Market Breakout to the Upside


Notice how volume expanded on the move to new highs, validating the breakout move. The volume was skewed toward the offer vs. bid side and came into the market above VWAP and above the volume bulge at the 1054/1055 level. That tells us that the market is accepting value higher, and it suggests that shorts had to cover when they could not push price below their overnight lows.
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1 comments:

Matt Fahmie said...

If you look at the 9:30 bar low you can see only 192x0, a clear indication that lower prices were not attracting the same activity relative to last time down at that price. When there are no more sellers, either we need to see sellers initiate trade lower (unexpected) or buyers respond to the lack due to lack of selling(expected). I believe one is able to front run these breakouts by participating on the long side when selling dries up, not when the breakout is already occurring. One is still able to pull a profit from waiting for the breakout, but he is also paying a premium and holds greater risk than if he was able to read anticipate the breakout from reading the dried up supply.