Friday, September 18, 2009

Using a Broad Market View to Trade False Breakouts and Non-Confirmations


As noted in the recent tweet (follow the intraday indicator, news, and market updates free of charge), the lows that we made in the ES futures (90,000 contract Market Delta chart) were not confirmed by either the Russell 2000 or NASDAQ 100 futures. Moreover, we didn't see new daily lows in the XLB, XLI, XLP, XLY, or XLK sectors.

As a rule, I find that more non-confirmations--the greater the number of indexes and sectors not following ES to a new high or low--the more likely it is that we will see a reversal, creating a false breakout move.

Once we got buying off the lows and moved back into the day's range, a trade for a move to at least VWAP had sound risk/reward.

It's a nice illustration of how volume flow information within a single index, such as ES, is helpful, but does not replace a broader market view that takes in a variety of indexes and sectors.
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1 comments:

BOYD said...

Ive seen that chart several times without an explanation of where to access that info or who sells it. For me i dont understand how it works from one chart. Does it read from left to right and go up and down like candlesticks?I notice there is a 0x at the top of every stack was that generated at the beginning or end? I think you assume too much when posting those charts. I would like to see a users manual link every time I see that chart to decode what you are trying to convey.