Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Morning Briefing for September 23rd: Ahead of the Fed

We can see that the S&P e-mini (ES) futures have ground higher in overnight trade, having held above the 1062 support area identified yesterday. We're also trading above the day's volume-weighted average price (VWAP; red line) thus far this morning. Ability to hold above that level will target the bull market highs and set up a potential breakout trade with respect to the recent multiday range. A move below VWAP would continue us in the multiday range. We're seeing some USD strength vs. Aussie dollar, and gold and oil are trading off a bit. I'll be watching those intermarket themes closely, as--thus far--they are not particularly supportive of higher stock prices.

We've generally seen positive market performance going into FOMC announcements, as noted by the excellent Quantifiable Edges blog. I'll be watching the cumulative NYSE TICK over the course of the morning and posting via Twitter to see if that bullish bias follows through today.