Friday, July 31, 2009

Morning Briefing for July 31st: Sustaining the Breakout

Above, we see the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures over the past several days, highlighting yesterday's break to the upside, as well as the late pullback. Overnight we've consolidated above the late afternoon lows; now I'm watching to see if we can stay above the prior multi-day range (red horizontal line) vs. revert into that range. With momentum (Demand/Supply) and strength (new highs/lows) tilted to the bulls on Thursday, my first hypothesis is generally to look for a test of the previous day's highs. Failure to make that expected test would strengthen expectations for a retreat into the multi-day range. I would see any such reversion into the range as part of an extended topping process, with eventual intermediate-term implications. (See indicator comments from evening briefing).