Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Morning Briefing: Home on the Multi-Day Range

For this morning's briefing, I'm posting the NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures, because they so nicely illustrate the multi-day trading range and weakening of upside momentum that we've been seeing. They also illustrate a pattern of higher price lows day over day, as even modest selling has been seized by bulls as a reason to participate in the recent strength. It wouldn't surprise me to see us take out those rising bottoms and shake out the weak bulls. It also wouldn't surprise me to see us fail to move significantly lower than that. After having poor years in 2008, money managers are not in a position to miss a rebound in 2009. That gives them plenty of incentive to chase highs as the year progresses. As long as we don't see rising 20-day lows among stocks (and 20-day highs handily outweighing lows), it's tough to be selling this market for anything more than a short-term trade. (Note: I track those new highs/lows daily via Twitter).