Thursday, July 09, 2009

Morning Briefing for July 9th: Following Significant Weakness

Well, yesterday's research has been paying off nicely, as we turned around in afternoon trade and have seen higher prices for stocks overnight. I noticed that we made a 20-day price low yesterday, with the number of NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE issues making fresh 20-day lows exceeding 2000. When this has been the case since September, 2002 (when I first began archiving the 20-day highs and lows), the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has averaged a subsequent 20-day gain of .90% (42 up, 29 down). That compares with an average .14% 20-day gain for the remainder of the sample (980 up, 623 down). It's one more reminder that significant weakness in the past does not necessarily imply further weakness going forward.

Between trader meetings, I'll be updating the blog and Twitter with market observations. More to come!

9:38 AM CT - After peeking above yesterday's high, the S&P 500 Index (ES) has moved back into the previous day's range toward the day's pivot. With a mixed TICK and mixed volume at offer/bid in Market Delta, it's shaping up as a range trade thus far.