Monday, August 03, 2009

Thinking About Morning Market Action: Framing Trading Ideas

Let's take a look at Twitter comments thus far this AM. Note how observation of a fly in the bull ointment began with an observation of NQ weakness before the open; open minded watching of how we traded around the open price (and 7/30 high price); and then observation of weakness within 10 minutes of the open.

8:17 AM CT - I'll be watching NQ this AM; it's off its overnite and 7/30 highs. Financial stks set to open abt 2% up. Watching those too

8:37 AM CT - Watching how we trade rel to 994.25 ES open price; USD weak; TICK strong; 1793 more advancers than declines.

8:39 AM CT - 17 stks up from open, 23 dn; mixed open so far despite pos opening gap. XLP, XLV weak; XLB, XLE rel strong.

8:41 AM CT - Note that mkt open is also near that 7/30 high; if we can't stay above open, that also means we're bk into 2 day range. ;-)

8:49 AM CT - Seeing some unwinding of intermarket themes: USD strengthening, gold, oil seeing some selling; most sectors dn fm open

8:51 AM CT - Note that inability to stay above 2 day trading range targets pivot level as price target.

8:55 AM CT - IWM showing rel weakness from open; 12 stks up from open, 28 dn; mixed TICK distribution

9 AM CT - Significant buying burst on 9 AM CT news; watching to see if we can get and stay above the early AM highs.

9:02 AM CT - Once again that 994 level proving crucial; Russell, NQ off highs; mkt having difficulty sustaining rally.

9:05 AM CT - Note renewed dollar weakness providing bid to stocks, gold, and oil; we appear to be trading off USD; moving to new highs

9:07 AM CT - Marginal new high in ES not confirmed by other indexes; 18 stks up from open, 22 dn.

Given all the above, how would you be trading now? What would you be thinking about to frame a trade idea?

What I'm trying to illustrate is both a way of thinking about price action and a way to provide an extra set of eyes for traders as they're trading.