Let's take a look at Twitter comments thus far this AM. Note how observation of a fly in the bull ointment began with an observation of NQ weakness before the open; open minded watching of how we traded around the open price (and 7/30 high price); and then observation of weakness within 10 minutes of the open.
8:17 AM CT - I'll be watching NQ this AM; it's off its overnite and 7/30 highs. Financial stks set to open abt 2% up. Watching those too
8:37 AM CT - Watching how we trade rel to 994.25 ES open price; USD weak; TICK strong; 1793 more advancers than declines.
8:39 AM CT - 17 stks up from open, 23 dn; mixed open so far despite pos opening gap. XLP, XLV weak; XLB, XLE rel strong.
8:41 AM CT - Note that mkt open is also near that 7/30 high; if we can't stay above open, that also means we're bk into 2 day range. ;-)
8:49 AM CT - Seeing some unwinding of intermarket themes: USD strengthening, gold, oil seeing some selling; most sectors dn fm open
8:51 AM CT - Note that inability to stay above 2 day trading range targets pivot level as price target.
8:55 AM CT - IWM showing rel weakness from open; 12 stks up from open, 28 dn; mixed TICK distribution
9 AM CT - Significant buying burst on 9 AM CT news; watching to see if we can get and stay above the early AM highs.
9:02 AM CT - Once again that 994 level proving crucial; Russell, NQ off highs; mkt having difficulty sustaining rally.
9:05 AM CT - Note renewed dollar weakness providing bid to stocks, gold, and oil; we appear to be trading off USD; moving to new highs
9:07 AM CT - Marginal new high in ES not confirmed by other indexes; 18 stks up from open, 22 dn.
Given all the above, how would you be trading now? What would you be thinking about to frame a trade idea?
What I'm trying to illustrate is both a way of thinking about price action and a way to provide an extra set of eyes for traders as they're trading.
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4 comments:
Excellent.
Thanks!
maybe i'm missing something. i read the comment and said, well, obviously the mkts can't hold the highs. BUT we made new highs, right? e.g. @09:41 CST, SPY hit 100.35 (OHL 99.85 100.35 99.31)exceeding 2d highs. breadth up & rising, LinRegr for TICK flat, TIKI downward trending on 2m intraday.
Obviously, I'm a bit confused and missing patterns. Brett,
what do you see as noise and what is most meaningful at 09:50 CST ??
Hi ChiTown,
I do indeed think there were unusual cross currents early this AM, with intermarket themes bullish and profit taking in early trade. That was confusing for me as well; I don't think you were missing patterns. But as my tweets from 9:20 AM on indicated, the confusion was resolved for me short term when TICK stayed positive and we stayed above the key 994 level. But the cross-currents remain and I won't be a bull if/when we retreat below 994.
Brett
Nice call Dr. Brett.
Unfortunately, my short at ES 1000 didn't get triggered. Oh, well, we all know the saying about opportunities and losses. . .
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