Monday, August 31, 2009

Evening Briefing for August 31st

* MARKET THEMES FROM MONDAY: We saw an early decline in stocks break us below the lows of 8/27, only for trade to slow down considerably and then rally late in the session. Short-term, this leaves us in a trading range between the overnight highs preceding Monday's trade and Monday's lows. Overall, weakness dominated with market, with about 1400 more declining issues than advancers on the NYSE and 20-day lows exceeding new highs. The U.S. dollar weakened once we hit a bottom in stocks; gold strengthened from that point, but oil remained relatively weak through the session. Financial stocks closed well off their highs and well into Friday's trading range; industrial stocks, small caps, and consumer discretionary shares were relatively weak from the open. Ten-year rates closed near their lows, just a bit above 3.4%.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 11:30 PM CT - Australia, RBA (central bank) announcement; 1:00 AM CT - Germany, retail sales; 2:50 AM CT - Germany, unemployment rate; 4:00 AM CT - EU, unemployment rate; 8:30 PM CT - Australia, GDP. Earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday here.


-- Spain as a disaster waiting to happen;

-- One way to keep the market up: don't let bears trade;

-- March uptrends remain intact;

-- Latest review of economic data;

-- Nice life lesson about keeping things under control;

-- Cracks in the Shanghai market;

-- Economy bouncing back in 2nd half of 2009;