Saturday, August 15, 2009

Conceptual Sketch of an Trend/Breakout Indicator

Imagine bars of any duration. If Bar 2 closes higher than the high of Bar 1, we grade Bar 2 as a bullish bar, as we are accepting value higher. If Bar 2 closes lower than the low of Bar 1, we grade Bar 2 as a bearish bar, as we are accepting value lower. If Bar 2 closes within the range of Bar 1, we grade Bar 2 as a range bar.

Suppose now we grade each stock in a basket or average for its bull, bear, and range bars and sum those ratings, so that we know how many stocks in that group are bullish, bearish, and range bound for the period represented by the latest bar.

If, for example, we use 30-minute bars, the ratings of the second bar of the day across our universe of stocks would tell us something about the breadth of opening range breakouts.

If we use daily bars, we could assess short-term trending day over day: how many issues trade bullishly, bearishly, and range bound. That would be helpful in gauging the market environment for the coming day, particularly if we then assess the next day's open relative to the prior day's range.

One idea is to accept breakouts in an index when there is good breadth of stocks breaking out in bullish or bearish fashion; to expect reversals when there is poor breadth of stocks breaking out.

I'll have something assembled for this indicator by tomorrow.