Friday, August 14, 2009

Midday Briefing for August 14th: A Look at Bearish Intraday Sentiment

As we can see from the Market Delta chart above, volume in the ES futures that is transacted at the market bid has greatly exceeded volume transacted at the market's offer price (bottom histogram), suggesting that sellers have been much more aggressive than buyers thus far this morning. Catching this dynamic early in the market day is quite helpful in framing trades that reach downside targets, as this morning's tweets illustrate.

Note that volume has been building in the 994-997 price area; rejection of this area to the upside would keep us in the multi-day trading range. A downside rejection that takes out recent support just below 990 would be an important short-term trend shift. I continue to view the market's recent behavior as part of an extended topping process that will eventually take us below this week's lows.