Monday, August 10, 2009

Midday Briefing for August 10th: Non-Confirmation and Reversal

Recall from the post on Friday that the new highs in the S&P 500 Index were widely unconfirmed by sector action. Now we see that the ES futures have moved back into their multiday range of last week in what I continue to view as extended topping behavior. If that is correct, we should see the lows of last week's range eventually taken out. Meanwhile, the NQ futures are already at the bottom of their previous week's range and weakness has hit the sectors that had been relatively strong: materials, industrial, and consumer discretionary. We're also seeing strength in the U.S. dollar, weakness in gold, and a pullback in 10-year Treasury rates. If this is, indeed, part of a topping process, we should be seeing weakness among the indicators that I track daily via Twitter; I'll post fresh data prior to each day's open (follow the Twitter stream here).