Thursday, July 02, 2009

Evening Briefing for July 2nd

* MARKET THEMES FROM THURSDAY - Economic weakness on the heels of the weak unemployment report; breakout below multi-day trading range; strong U.S. dollar; weak commodities; falling 10-year Treasury rates. Broad market decline: 293 20-day highs; 696 lows. Looking ready to test June lows.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS - 12 Midnight CT - Japan, Leading Indicators; 3 AM CT - EU, PMI; 4 AM CT - EU, Retail Trade.


-- Investor optimism has taken a fall.

-- Unemployment already worse than bank stress test assumptions.

-- Prospects for inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar.

-- A sobering, broader look at unemployment.

-- Questioning reform of the big banks.

-- States are exerting a contracting force on the economy; more stimulus needed?

-- Nice chart: forecasts of fiscal deficits around the world.

-- Personal bankruptcy on the rise.