Thursday, July 02, 2009

Morning Briefing for July 2nd

On the heels of the weak unemployment report, we've broken below the range noted in the evening briefing. Dollar strength and commodity weakness have accompanied the move, suggesting that macro traders are treating the number as a game changer. Having put in a lower high despite new lows in volatility, we are set up to test June's lows below 900 over the intermediate term. If that number is, indeed, a game changer, we should not return to the ES 915 level from before the release.