Thursday, July 02, 2009

More Shifting Opportunity in Stocks: When is the Market Moving?

Here's an addendum to the recent post on shifting opportunity in the stock market. If we look at the S&P 500 Index (SPY) since the March low, we find that SPY gained 12.17 points during their day sessions from the March lows through the end of April. Since April, however, SPY has only gained .57 point.

Conversely, during the overnight session, SPY lost -.61 point from the March lows to the end of April. Since April, however, SPY has gained 4.34 points.

Interestingly, as we've moved from a trending market to a range market, we've seen the locus of market strength shift from the day session to the overnight market. My interpretation of this is that, as the rally matured, the relative strength of emerging markets took the lead from the U.S. market, with up moves initiated during overnight trade.

Given that emerging markets are more volatile than the U.S. market, this shift of focus might also help to explain why the overnight moves in the U.S. have been almost as sizable as the day moves during 2009. This shift might also help to explain why many daytraders have been frustrated with the stock market recently: there has been little directional tendency during day sessions from May to the present.