Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Evening Briefing for August 26th

* MARKET THEMES FROM WEDNESDAY: We registered an inside day today, with lower price highs and higher price lows relative to Tuesday. This sustains us in a multi-day trading range. During the range, we've seen the U.S. dollar trade higher vs. the euro and weakness in gold and oil, both of which closed off their lows. We've also seen a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, consistent with the theme of profit taking in risk trades. New 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE fell to 802; new lows were 248. The great majority of stocks in my basket continue to trade in short-term uptrends. The longer we stay in the trading range, the more we're accepting value at the higher price levels, which is consistent with a continuation of the bull move in spite of nagging non-confirmations. A drop below the price lows of last week would clearly negate that bullish scenario. I will be updating indicator readings as usual via Twitter (follow here).

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:00 AM CT - Germany, CPI; EU, money supply; 6:30 PM CT - Japan, CPI, household spending, unemployment.

* EARNINGS: AEO, BEBE, CHA, DELL, ENER, JCG, NOVL, SHI, TOL, TD, VIP

* WORTH READING:

-- Can the market move higher? A historical look;

-- Seasonal patterns in the market;

-- Enlightening interview with AlphaTrends' Brian Shannon;

-- Thoughts on zombie ETFs;

-- Worthwhile perspectives on seasonal adjustments of economic data.
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