Thursday, August 20, 2009

Evening Briefing for August 20th

* MARKET THEMES FROM THURSDAY: After some pre-opening weakness, stocks once again caught a bid and traded higher during the morning. Volume dried up as the day progressed, but buying pressure remained strong for the session. The S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures made fresh highs late in the afternoon, but there were non-confirmations from several sectors, as well as from the advance-decline line. This had me questioning the vigor of the rally toward day's end. Another question mark was that, as stocks made new highs, we did not see comparable strength among commodities. Ten-year yields closed off their highs, as well. I continue to view the current action as part of an extended topping process in stocks; if the non-confirmations prove significant, then we should also be seeing some short-term topping.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: No major reports scheduled.



-- Emerging economies the engine of future global growth;

-- Labor market continues to look weak;

-- Housing won't bottom until late 2010?

-- Inflation not looking like a threat;

-- No bottom in sight for non-residential construction;

-- Recovery based on an addiction to debt;

-- Trading a break in resistance;

-- Thoughts on a two-track economy;