Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Evening Briefing for July 1st

* MARKET THEMES FROM WEDNESDAY - Rise during early trade fades, keeping us in trading range; oil fell during the session; U.S. dollar strengthened; gold tailed off after early strength; 10-year Treasury rates fell. Energy, materials, banking shares weak; consumer staples, small caps strong. Nice source for
daily market wrap.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS - 4:00 AM CT - EU: PPI, Unemployment; 6:45 AM CT - EU: ECB rate decision.


-- Correlations among asset classes show major herd trading patterns;

-- Insights from Barry Ritholtz; excellent interview;

-- Thanks to Gustavo for latest translations of TraderFeed posts into Portuguese; he also documents daytrades in Forex in English language posts.

-- Nice trading site that looks at market regimes and patterns among other things;

-- "We're shoveling money at companies"; credit markets like firms better than stock traders;

-- Why expansion of Fed balance sheet is not currently inflationary;

-- Three potential pitfalls in the economic rebuilding: higher inflation, weaker dollar, and rising interest rates.

4:53 AM CT - I've added the chart above to show the multi-day trading range for the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) contract going into the 6:45 AM CT ECB announcement and the 7:30 AM CT unemployment numbers in the US. We're coming up to a long holiday weekend, so trade could slow notably after the morning numbers. See recent Twitter post for list of numbers, indicators, and pivot targets.