Friday, March 05, 2010

Morning Briefing for March 5th: Breakout

9:32 AM CT - I've added the top chart of NYSE TICK to show how we've consistently stayed above zero all morning long, as we've accepted price above the recent trading range. The blue moving average of TICK is rising, and it remains well above the purple zero line. That is characteristic of trending markets.

We've broken to fresh rally highs on the heels of the favorable payrolls numbers and now building volume between 1129 and 1130 in the ES futures (above). I'm watching to see if we stay above the prior overnight high at 1128.50 and especially to see if we stay above VWAP and the 1125 high from two days ago. The real call here is whether this is a legit upside breakout vs. a trap that will take us back into the multi-day range. I'll need to see distinct evidence of volume hitting bids before assuming the latter scenario, given firmness in other risk assets. Update will come later this AM.