Thursday, March 11, 2010

An Update on Risk Asset Measures

Please see this post for an explanation of the risk asset index that I recently constructed (top chart); this post will provide background regarding the risk asset oscillator (bottom chart).

We can see that risk themes (U.S. stocks, emerging market shares, oil, Treasury rates, and inverse USD) have been moving higher in recent sessions, but we're not at this point seeing a breakout above January highs. Our risk oscillator, which assesses recent risk appetite, has done a reasonable job as a short-term contrary indicator: it is showing levels of risk appetite approaching levels associated with short-term tops in U.S. stocks.