Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Morning Briefing for March 30th: Continuing the Range Trade

10:35 AM CT - Note the downside break that occurred from the range that had prevailed going into today's open. The inability to hold the move above the pre-opening lows led to selling that has taken us back into the thick of the multiday range. It's a good example of how a breakout move at one time scale is actually a mean reversion move at another. If we persist with a negative bias to NYSE TICK, I would expect a test of the multiday range lows around 1160.

As we can see, we're trading within a multiday range, with prices recently caught within a narrow range inside the larger range. We're also seeing mixed trading among asset classes, with not much movement from gold and oil. There's some strength in AUD vs USD but not much happening with EUR. I'm continuing to watch small cap stocks vs. the large caps and the Cumulative NYSE TICK; those should point the way toward how this range environment will ultimately be resolved directionally. More later this AM.