Thursday, March 11, 2010

Morning Briefing for March 11th: Rollover

8:21 AM CT - I've added the top chart to show how we've moved below VWAP and toward support as anticipated below. For now I'm treating this as a range market, with price expected to oscillate around VWAP. Failure to move above VWAP on early buying would target a breakout below the 1134/1135 area.

We've rolled over to the June contract in the ES (above), so that's why prices and volumes look different thus far today. Not all players have made that rollover, so some volume is transacted in the March contracts. That being said, we're trading in a range before the market open, oscillating around the VWAP of 1138. We're firmly inside yesterday's range, with the 1134/1135 area as near-term support and yesterday's high around 1143 as resistance.

I'm short a small position with an initial target of the range low. My tactics have me taking profits quickly in slow markets unless I see an upswing in volume/volatility. More on this later.