Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Morning Briefing for February 16th: Upside Break

10:52 AM CT - I've added the top chart to show how we've broken above the overnight highs on solid buying volume, propelled by the intermarket action (weak USD, strong commodities). We need to stay above those overnight highs and see continued net volume at offer vs. bid to sustain the market rally.

Note the upside breakout in pre-opening trade in the ES futures (above). Since that time, we pulled back, but bounced back above VWAP despite tepid EU support for Greece. We see a stronger euro and Aussie dollar; we also see oil and gold higher. That tells us that intermarket themes are supporting higher stock prices--and it puts us short-term bullish as long as we hold above the 1080 area of recent support. Bigger picture resistance is in the low 1100 region.