Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Morning Briefing for November 25th: On Breakout Watch

While stocks (ES futures, top chart) remain in their multiweek range, we can see that the euro has broken to the upside vs. the U.S. dollar (bottom chart), with continued strength in gold, but weakness in oil. Both the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 indexes are off their multiweek highs, suggesting we'll need to see solid breadth to create a valid upside breakout. With the holiday looming, it may be difficult to muster the volume for such a push up. The distribution of the NYSE TICK early in the day will give a good indication as to whether we can sustain a directional push.