Thursday, November 19, 2009

Today's Trade Across Asset Classes: Catching Intermarket Correlations

From 12 N CT forward, it was easy to look for a second leg down in the ES futures (top chart). Note, however, that the correlated asset classes--euro (middle chart) and gold (bottom chart)--had already rallied and taken out their morning highs. That suggested that the drop in stocks was not part of a fundamental revaluation of risk assets (as I had hypothesized), but rather a "puke" stimulated by the break of the multi-day trading range. If that is the case, the current action is more likely to be a correction in an ongoing bull market, rather than a reversal of those bull dynamics (much of which are rooted in the weak U.S. dollar).