Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Morning Briefing for September 8th

As you can see from this hourly chart of the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures, we are testing the 9/1 highs, having retraced the lion's share of last week's drop. Note that the NQ futures have already moved above their 9/1 high.

Intermarket themes are very bullish for risk assets, led by a very weak U.S. dollar. Ten-year yields are up from Friday; oil is much stronger; and gold has broken $1000/oz. Copper is very strong, and we saw stock markets in both Hong Kong and China up over 2%.

I will be keeping my eye on intraday sentiment measures (NYSE TICK, advance/decline line) as well as those intermarket themes to see if this, indeed, is a start to a post-summer risk rally that would take us to new highs in the stock market.