Monday, September 07, 2009

Evening Briefing for September 7th

* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY: Stocks held in a range much of the morning on Friday, before moving sharply higher on a range breakout late in the morning and sustaining the strength for the remainder of the day. We have traded further to the upside in Globex holiday trade, reflecting strength in global equity markets. Friday's stock rally saw notable weakness in the U.S. dollar, as well as a bounce in oil that we didn't sustain late in the afternoon. Gold closed near its high for the week, sustaining strength following its earlier breakout. We have resistance in the ES contract at the 9/1 premarket highs; I will be watching carefully to see if the holiday strength carries over into Tuesday's morning trade. Week ahead view here.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 1:00 AM CT - Germany, merchandise trade balance; 3:30 AM CT - UK, manufacturing output and industrial production; 5:00 AM CT - Germany, industrial production; 8:30 PM CT - Australia, retail sales. Earnings reports due Tuesday here.


-- Henry Carstens tests a version of the Transition Trading System and finds a fragile edge;

-- A (long) list of problem banks in the U.S.;

-- A look at recent swings in the stock market;

-- Making the bull case for gold.