Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Seeing the Whole Field: Catching a Stock Market Turn By Tracking Related Sectors and Asset Classes

Here's a quick snapshot of this morning's trade in the S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES), as we move back into a two-day trading range for a profitable fade. Early in the session, I noted in my Twitter post that I was skeptical of the market's rally. Instead of seeing follow-through strength in the broad list of stocks--small caps, NASDAQ issues--we saw selling. Moreover, the pro-risk themes in other asset classes (selling Treasuries, rising yields; selling U.S. dollar vs. euro) reversed in early trade. We could also see selling in the pro-growth sectors: technology, materials, and consumer discretionary shares. It's a great example of how themes from various sectors and markets can illuminate the day's trade in stocks.