Wednesday, May 06, 2009

A Few Preopening Thoughts

* Of the last 25 trading sessions in the S&P 500 Index (SPY), we have been up 19, down 5, and unchanged once on an open to close basis. It has been difficult to play the down side for more than a short-term trade, as weakness has continued to attract buyers.

* It's not about the economy; it's about money on the sidelines and the need of money managers to put up good numbers after a dismal 2008. Portfolio managers who missed the decline are in no shape to also miss strength, so for now strength has led to further strength.

* To reiterate an observation that I've found to be a truism: You don't find traders who are making money talking about "manipulated" markets. Markets may or may not be manipulated, but many traders feel manipulated by markets when they're losing money.

* I've never seen a trader sustain success who blames markets for their losses. It's tough to work on yourself and your trading when you're casting blame (and assigning responsibility) elsewhere.

* The major indicators (new highs/lows; Cumulative TICK; advance/decline) have generally done a good job of keeping position traders long this market.

* If active traders slowed down their trading when volume slows down, they'd generally show better results. Tough to pull moves out of markets when markets are moving less.