Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Potpourri of Interesting Things

* Some Trends Aren't Friends - Going back to January, 1996 (N = 643 trading weeks), I compared returns when stocks (S&P 500 Index; SPY) were up on a one and four week basis and when they were down over the last week and four weeks. When stocks had been strong over those two periods, the next four weeks in SPY averaged a gain of only .05% (140 up, 119 down). When they were down over both those periods, the next four weeks in SPY averaged a gain of 1.01% (109 up, 68 down).

* Frontier ETF
- ETF Trends notes a very interesting product from Claymore that tracks frontier markets: the markets that will be tomorrow's emerging markets.

* Solid Performer - Quite a while ago I mentioned PHO, the water resources ETF. Since March, it's been a stellar performer, as water increasingly looks like tomorrow's oil.

* Skipping Trades - Dave Mabe on the Stock Bandit site, explaining how skipping trades can be as problematic as overtrading. Also take a look at Dave's discussion of the advantages of automating your trades.

* Green Light/Red Light Market Forecasts - Nice way of defining opportunity: when historical expectations exceed historical average adverse excursions.

* Does Friday Affect Monday? - Quantifiable Edges examines whether Friday returns influence those on Mondays.

* Beyond the Defaults - VIX and More examines what happens when you tweak the default settings in your charting software.

* China and Oil - Trader's Narrative makes the case for falling oil in the face of plunging China.

* Stock Screens - Chris Perruna has been posting some interesting ones.

* Cat Music - Mali just ran into my den when she heard Tarja and Sabine. That's one cool cat.