Friday, August 03, 2007

When Bearishness Has Been Persistent--And More

* Lots of Bearishness Out There - We've had six consecutive days in which equity put volume has exceeded equity call volume. I went back to the start of 2004 (N = 868 trading days) and examined occasions in which five-day equity put volume exceeded equity call volume. This occurred in mid-May, 2006; early-mid June, 2006; mid July, 2006; and a broad stretch of time from 2/27/07 through very early April, 2007. Out of the 28 trading days covered during these periods, 27 were up thirty days later in SPY by an average of 4.73%--much better than the average 30-day gain of .89% for the remainder of the sample. Interestingly, we're only down slightly during this most recent five-day period of bearishness, suggesting that the bears are having difficulty keeping the market down.

* Blogs that Kirk Reads - Here's a potpourri of readings from some of the blogs Charles Kirk checks out, including speculation as to what sparked that late rally on Wednesday.

* Trading EuroStoxx and DAX Futures - On August 7th there will be a live trading event sponsored by Eurex and hosted by Market Delta's Trevor Harnett describing trading techniques utilized by proprietary traders.

* Trading Events Through the Day - This is a useful post on when the world's exchanges open and close. Those of you who read my Twitter comments will note that I've begun posting the times of important U.S. economic releases. (Last five comments appear on the blog home page).

* The Brain and Performance - Here's a linkfest from the Sharp Brains site, with a number of articles dealing with practical aspects of cognitive neuroscience. Check out the link re: beating forgetfulness and boosting the brain; relevant to many performance disciplines.

* Market A Buying Opportunity? - Trader's Narrative outlines 12 reasons to be buying this market. Worthwhile contrary thinking.

* How Will the Election Affect Stocks? - A Dash of Insight has begun an "election project" to highlight stocks that will benefit from election developments. Excellent idea.