Persistent Day Selling and Other Topics for a Monday

Selling in the Day - I noticed that only 13 of the past 30 day sessions in SPY have been up in price. Going back to 2004 (N = 878 trading days), we've seen 121 occasions in which 13 or fewer days out of 30 have been higher. Thirty days later, SPY has been up by an average of 2.27% (100 up, 21 down), much stronger than the average 30-day gain of .79% (476 up, 281 down) for the remainder of the sample. When we go back to 1996 (N = 2836 trading days), we find 685 instances of persistent day selling. SPY has been up by an average of 2.03% 30 days later (463 up, 222 down), again stronger than the average 30-day gain of .73% for the remainder of the sample. Interestingly, in the larger sample (unlike 2004-present), there was no positive edge five days out and plenty of instances of drawdown.

Tracking the Markets - Trader Mike finds us in "no man's land", trapped between moving averages, but observes continued strength in on-balance volume. Adam lends some perspective on fair value and what it means. Phil checks out double bottom patterns in the major indexes and strength in some sectors. Brian reviews the averages and is looking for further mini-panics.

Links Worth Checking Out - Abnormal Returns on what insiders are doing here and the quant bloodbath; Chris, with views on creativity and the fear/volatility mix; Big Picture with a linkfest featuring views on volatility and housing contagion; Larry Nusbaum with weekend reading, including many ways of going short.

Forecasting Unlikely Events - Interesting perspective from A Dash of Insight, relevant to the many emails I'm getting about crash concerns.

Do Some Individual Investors Find Consistent Success? - CXO examines the evidence and finds some interesting conclusions.