Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Hong Kong and the Anatomy of a Parabolic Market Rise

Here we see the i-Shares Hong Kong ETF (EWH) and that market's rise to all-time highs, even as world markets have experienced liquidity-related setbacks.

Note the ramping up of volume as price has moved higher. We know that volume and volatility are closely correlated. When we have a parabolic market rise, we see market volatility expanding in the direction of market trend. New high prices are attracting further interest, and that keeps the rally going.

Apparently, in the wake of news that investors in mainland China will be able to invest in Hong Kong shares, there's an expectation of further good things to come: the Hong Kong bourse is investing considerable sums to expand that market's ability to handle increased transaction volume.

These parabolic rises tend to end badly, as we saw in Japan in 1980 and in the tech stocks in 2000. For now, however, you have to be impressed by a rally that hasn't been derailed by credit concerns, weakness in the U.S. and Europe, and worldwide risk aversion.