Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Powerful Intermarket Theme

Here we see the powerful theme driving the recent markets: the U.S. dollar has been weak, particularly vs. the Australian dollar (top chart). That has led to strength in such commodities as gold and oil and a sharp rise in stock prices (ES futures; bottom chart). As long as portfolio managers remain bullish on risk assets and need to finish their years strong, they will continue to bid up stocks and commodities and sell the U.S. dollar in favor of higher yielding currencies.