Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Tuesday Market Perspectives

* Henry Carstens is posting the positions from his trading system via Twitter; I see he has doubled down on the long side;

* Looking at signs of a double top;

* Getting close to the bottom of the stock market's linear regression channel;

* Since the March bottom, weak closes have tended to be buying opportunities;

* An inflation-hedged ETF and more good reading;

* A few noteworthy bearish signs;

* Great way of tracking ETFs each week;

* The future of the dollar as a reserve currency.


weightoftheevidence said...

With Carsten's fabulous "hypothetical" profits for a 10 year plus period and "actual" NEGATIVE RESULTS for the only real period (2/2009-present), aren't you, an extremely exacting trader with a scientific mind, placing way too much emphasis and increasing the following of a questionable performance record?

Disclosure: I have NO prior knowledge of this guy before you and no bone to pick... I just scoff at this type of "hypothetical" return.

zircon-212 said...

The infamous and often favorite traders pretty please get me out of this mess play aka the DoubleDown. This genius move works just often enough for us traders to validate it as a useful technique(usually right before we get run over by a bus). Paul Tudor Jones is not lying to you in his famous quote "Losers average Losers"! Caveat emptor

Phil said...

Double down, double down ... I'm sure this guy has more than 2 units to play with, so the title should have been "scaling in". To me, doubling down implies commiting a significant portion of your stack...

zircon-212 said...


You are arguing about semantics if you label it with any other name. Anyway you dress it up adding to a position that is out of the money is adding to a LOSER. I have lost enough money to fund a small 3rd world country adding to losers. See Doc B's post above on idiot trades. Averaging, doubling down, scaling in, et al can and often lead to one's best idiot trades. I have seen plenty of people making money adding to losers, but unfortunately to most of us joe the plumber traders it is not a defined methodology, but rather a sign of desperation. I'm sure there a plenty out there prepared to fill a novel on how 'scaling' works. Best of luck with that and tell Vic Neiderhoffer I said Hi!