Wednesday, January 06, 2010

The Importance of Active Market Processing

If you review the tweets from this morning, you'll see how my market thinking evolved during the morning session:

* Pre-market: Bullish when we held above the overnight lows on the employment numbers;

* Opening: Continued bullish when we stayed above VWAP, but noting weak cumulative delta and mixed TICK;

* Post ISM Number: Could not sustain selling on the number; hit upside target by taking out ES 1133 high; questioned hitting higher targets given low volume and mixed TICK, as well as non-confirmations from Russell and NASDAQ indexes;

* Pre-oil Number: Got out of position ahead of oil number, given continued mixed behavior of market. When oil number showed weak, flipped to range view of market, anticipating move back down below VWAP.

The important thing here is the continuous updating of market expectations based on unfolding action. By staying open-minded, we can pounce on opportunities that unfold, but also exit situations that are deteriorating. Such active processing is something I notice among many of the best traders.