Thursday, November 19, 2009

U.S. Dollar Bottoming: A Turn in the Risk Trade?

Recently, I've highlighted non-confirmations in the stock market, as new stock highs in the large cap indexes were not followed by highs among small caps and many stock sectors.

What we also see is that the recent highs in large cap stocks have not been followed by new dollar lows against the euro (top chart), yen (second chart from top), Canadian dollar (second chart from bottom), and Swiss franc (bottom chart).

With these major currencies topping out against the U.S. dollar and stocks showing divergences at highs, we may be seeing a major turn in the dollar-fueled "risk trade".