Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Morning Briefing for September 29th: Digesting Gains

We've seen some selling come into the preopening market, with ES holding above its late Monday afternoon highs around 1056, but NQ trading lower. Should we be able to hold that 1056 level, I'd expect us to take out Monday's high and continue the rally. I noted a little while back that the alpha version of the trading system I'm developing has been long. The conservative version of the system closed that trade at yesterday's close; the aggressive version stays long above 1050 for a move to at least 1070. The system is still in development, so take with grains of salt.

We're seeing strength in USD vs. euro; weakness in gold and oil. Rates in the 10-year Treasury note have moved below 3.3%. So, all in all, intermarket themes are not so supportive of stocks here. That being said, we've held Monday's gains well. I'll be updating intraday sentiment and intermarket themes via Twitter; I'm also testing out a couple of new tools and might mention those.