Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Evening Briefing for September 29th

* MARKET THEMES FROM TUESDAY: We moved above the Monday highs in early trade, only to be smacked down by weak consumer confidence data. Although we retraced much of the breakout move from Monday, we remained above the former resistance in the upper 1040s in the ES contract. Weakness late in the session was not confirmed by the intraday advance-decline line, which was balanced between gainers and losers for most of the afternoon. As long as we stay above that key support area, I'm viewing today's action as a range bound consolidation of yesterday's gains. The U.S. dollar closed off its recent highs, especially versus the Aussie dollar; gold and oil remained in tight ranges; while 10-year Treasury yields continued to drop.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: Lots of data overseas. 1:45 AM CT - France, PPI; 2:50 AM CT - Germany, unemployment; 3:00 AM CT - Italy, PPI; 4:00 AM CT - Italy, CPI; EU, consumer prices; 7:30 AM CT - Canada, PPI, GDP; 6:50 PM CT - Japan, retail sales, Tankan surveys. Earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday can be found here.


-- Looking for SPX at 1200 and more good reading;

-- Betting on Brazil and commodities;

-- Excellent look at ETFs and the dollar/stock relationship;

-- Cyclicals anticipating a V-shaped recovery?

-- Pain for holders of CIT;

-- Excellent review of economic reports from last week and expectations for this week.