Saturday, April 05, 2008

A Few Weekend Views

* Overbought - We can see from the above chart that my Adjusted Cumulative Demand/Supply Index--a measure that compares the current Demand/Supply reading to its long-term moving average--is quite overbought. In my research, on average this has led to subnormal returns 20 days out. To be sure, a market can stay overbought for awhile; it's when we see the overbought readings also correspond to a period of rising 20-day new lows that stocks are most vulnerable to correction. So far, new 20-day highs have held up well (Friday showed 1630 new 20-day highs against 237 lows) and new lows have steadily contracted.

* Interview - Many thanks to the ATB Finance site in France for publishing this English-language interview with me on trading psychology and performance.

* Performance and Self-Perception - Thanks also to an alert reader who passed along this very interesting article on how our stereotyped thinking about ourselves affects our performance.

* Looking for Trend Days - On the heels of my recent post, Ray Barros shared some ways that he identifies trending days in the stock market.