Monday, July 23, 2007

Assessing Intraday Stock Market Sentiment and Other Observations

* Intraday Equity Put-Call Ratio - In the chart above, we see the equity put/call ratio for each 15 minute segment of the trading day from 7/17 through 7/20. You can see the lack of bearish sentiment as the market peaked and then the flood of put buying as we made new lows on Friday. A series of readings below .60 have tended to occur near short-term peaks; a series of readings above 1.0 at short-term lows. Worth keeping an eye on. See Adam's comments also re: how the VIX anticipated the recent uptick in market volatility.

* Looking Ahead for the Week - I've updated the Trading Psychology Weblog and track continued weakness among indicators.

* Florida Recession? Housing is especially weak in Miami, threatening to drag down the state economy. Bloomberg's regional stock market index for Florida has been treading water this year; weaker than many segments of the country and certainly weaker than the stock market overall.

* Perspective on Chinese Growth - Excellent post on supply driven growth in China and the implications, via Seeking Alpha.

* Swing Trading Views - The Kirk Report, in its members section, offers a Q&A session with Alan Farley. See also Kirk's links re: the subprime situation.

* Lots of Good Reading to Start the Week - Links from Options Trading Beginner with some worthwhile posts on money management and sector rotation. Trader Mike updates links, including problems looming for Fannie and Freddie. See Millionaire Now and views on the commodity supercycle (and more). Abnormal Returns tracks subprime disease and the repricing of credit risk. The Big Picture offers the week in preview, including a bullish perspective on AXP.