Thursday, October 15, 2009

Break in the Oil VIX

In light of yesterday's post, note the downside break in the Oil VIX. The weak dollar/strong commodity trade continues to support higher stock prices, as world growth outlooks trump inflation concerns for the time being.


OKL said...

i might be early on this one, but this price range; $75-$85 is where there is a potential change of oil's relationship w/equities; from a direct to an inverse one.

observation stems from memory- the $75-$85 range was where the reverse happened during the "waterfall crash"; as oil prices fell <$85 and continued lower, it exacerbated the decline in equities.

1 day does not make a trend, but thus far today, oil is up ~3% and equities are not doing alot really.

needless to say, the other "psych mark" is Euro homing in on 1.5

and yes, I'm the dumbass that tried to short oil today @_@; just small losses tho.

Matthew C. said...

I mostly just trade ES, but I've noticed some very interesting earnings "leaks" the past couple weeks.

Take a look at GOOG today, and AA last week. The price action in the last 2-3 minutes of the day session told you everything you needed to know about where to position for the earnings release.

I'm going to continue looking at this and see if I can make this into a system.

Given the utter crookedness of Wall Street the past year or two and the complete capture of their regulators, I expect this kind of blatent illegality to continue, and to give "tells" to savvy traders before earnings announcements, at least some of the time.