Friday, May 22, 2009

Stock Market in a Broad Range

Here we see the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA; 60 minute bars), with the new 20-day highs (top number) and 20-day lows (bottom number) superimposed for key trading days.

Note that we're trading in a wide range defined by today's (and the 5/15) low and the highs of 5/20 (and 5/6). We can see that new highs tailed off at the 5/20 highs relative to the early May period, and now we see new lows approaching the level seen on 5/13.

A break of the range lows accompanied by an expansion of 20-day lows would be a bearish development on an intermediate-term basis. Weakness in 10-year Treasuries (rising rates) and a weak dollar have been taking a toll on stocks lately, particularly since the recent release of Fed minutes. I'll be watching those markets for further indications of macro dynamics that could weigh on stocks.