Friday, September 19, 2008

Anatomy of a Market Turnaround: Tracking Intermarket Themes

With the midday turnaround in the S&P 500 futures (top chart), note how we also saw a plunge in gold (second chart), a fall in the euro vs. the U.S. dollar (third chart), and a fall in the price of short-term Treasuries (bottom chart). Gold had represented a safe haven during the market decline; the U.S. dollar was under pressure during the decline due to failing financial firms; and short-term Treasury instruments served their role in a flight to safety during the decline. The simultaneous unwinding of these themes was a strong indication that market sentiment had shifted in a fundamental way.