Monday, January 21, 2008

Retracing the Bull Move and Other Insights for a Bearish Holiday

* Those Weak Bank Stocks - The Banking Index ($BKX) is well on its way toward retracing its entire bull market move from 2002. In the wake of very weak global equity markets today, it will be interesting to see how the banks respond to any Fed intervention. The interventions so far have hardly proved reassuring.

* Looking at History - Jason Goepfert's SentimenTrader service is one of the ones I respect for its research. In his recent posting for subscribers, he compares the current decline to 1998 and 1987 crashes. Very interesting potential parallels, including a Fed pushed into action, a sizable bounce following the declines, and then further weakness.

* Reviewing Markets - Trader Mike offers his updated links, including an excellent Stockcharts review and a look at deflation. See also the links on recession and equity valuations from Abnormal Returns.

* Market Delta - I see Trevor at Market Delta is giving a free webinar for the Tradethemarkets site. He's developed some new indicators that might be of interest: Delta divergence and The Profile Direction Index.

* Capitulation and a Bounce? - The Quantifiable Edges site takes a historical look.

* Historical Perspectives on Bear Markets and Recessions - Calculated Risk examines where we stand with respect to past market plunges.