Thursday, January 03, 2008

Retail in a Range and Blog Links for Thursday

* Retail Holders Holding Up - One facet of the bear thesis is that housing weakness will spill over to the broad economy as consumers retrench. Above we see the Retail Holder ETF (RTH) going back to May of 2001. What we see is that, during the recession of 2001-2002, retail stocks plunged precipitously. At present, we're not seeing such a decline. Rather, the retail stocks have been in a very lengthy trading range and are near the lower end of that range at present. That's something I'm watching carefully, both for implications re: the broad stock market and the economy.

* Overcoming Trading Fears - Corey offers a variety of resources across the trading blogosphere.

* Screening for Stock Reversals - The Short-Term Trading Blog offers an interesting implementation with TradeStation.

* Perspectives on Performance - Abnormal Returns finds some provocative posts on how much of what's written re: trading is untrue and how past outperformance doesn't lead to future outperformance.

* Blogger Predictions - Adam finds year end perspectives across the blogosphere, including predictions for the new year.

* Quite a Trading Track Record - Charles Kirk posts his trading track record. Maybe that stock screening machine really does work!!

* More on Housing - Barry Ritholtz takes a look at how far housing would have to fall to be in sync with rents.