Friday, May 05, 2006

What's Really Happened While the Dow Made New Highs

As the Dow has made new highs, the broad market has been weaker. On Thursday, for example:

We had 41 new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 Index, down from 80 two weeks ago.

We had 61 new 52-week highs in the S&P 600 Index of small cap stocks, down from 100 two weeks ago.

We had 36 new 52-week highs in the S&P 400 Index of mid cap stocks, down from 62 two weeks ago.

We had 1 new 52-week high in the Dow 30 Industrials, down from 5 two weeks ago.


As the Dow made new highs on Thursday, momentum among stocks in the major averages was down, as well:

We had 62% of S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day exponential moving average, down from 80% two weeks ago.

We had 63% of S&P 600 small cap stocks above their 20-day EMA, down from 78% two weeks ago.

We had 56% of S&P 400 mid cap stocks above their 20-day EMA, down from 70% two weeks ago.

We had 70% of Dow 30 Industrial stocks above their 20-day EMA, down from 90% two weeks ago.


Growth stocks have underperformed value stocks during the recent Dow strength:

Since April 19th, value stocks within the S&P 500 have outperformed growth stocks.

Since April 19th, value stocks within the Russell 2000 small cap stocks have outperformed growth stocks.


As the Dow has made new highs, sectors have moved in different directions:

Real estate stocks (IYR) are down more than 5% since March.
Retail stocks (RTH) are down about 3% since March.
Semiconductor stocks (SOX) are down about 4% since March.
Housing stocks (HGX) are down over 8% since March.
Defense stocks (DFX) are up about 5% since March.
Oil stocks (XOI) are up nearly 10% since March.
Gold and silver stocks (XAU) are up over 20% since March.

In short, we've been seeing sector rotation out of growth and into value hard assets as interest rates have risen, energy prices have climbed, and the dollar has declined. The market seems to be betting against the consumer and against a robust economy.