SPY Up, QQQQ Weak: What Next?

Friday we saw the S&P 500 (SPY) up on the day by over .40%, but the NASDAQ 100 Index (QQQQ) down by more than -.90%.

Since March, 2003 (N = 794), we've only had eight occasions in which QQQQ has been down more than -.75% but SPY has been up in a single day. Three days later, SPY was down by an average -.45% (3 up, 5 down). That is much weaker than the average three-day change of .18% for the sample overall. Conversely, when QQQQ is weak and SPY is also weak on the day, the next three day change in SPY is distinctly bullish. More to come this weekend...